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Perbandingan Hasil Luaran Model Prakiraan Cuaca Conformal-Cubic [PAPER]

ABSTRAK Pada penelitian ini dilakukan perbandingan luaran model prakiraan cuaca CCAM terhadap luaran model prakiraan cuaca ARPEGE d...






ABSTRAK

Pada penelitian ini dilakukan perbandingan luaran model prakiraan cuaca CCAM terhadap luaran model prakiraan cuaca ARPEGE dan TLAPS untuk mengetahui performa dari model prakiraan cuaca CCAM di wilayah Indonesia. Data model global Global Forecasting System (GFS) digunakan sebagai data inisialisasi CCAM untuk prediksi. Cakupan data prediksi yang dibandingkan adalah periode tanggal 1 - 28 Februari 2009 mewakili kondisi musim hujan dan periode tanggal 1 – 31 Mei 2009 mewakili kondisi awal musim kering di Indonesia. Perbandingan dilakukan secara kualitatif dengan komparasi visual dan kuantitatif dengan menghitung nilai korelasi spasial menggunakan software Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS) versi 1.8SL11. Diperoleh bahwa hasil luaran ketiga model tersebut memiliki pola yang hampir sama, meskipun ARPEGE dan TLAPS menunjukkan hasil yang sedikit lebih baik dari CCAM. Hal ini mungkin dikarenakan penggunaan data analisis ARPEGE dan TLAPS sebagai representasi data observasi. Nilai rata-rata spasial korelasi dan nilai rata-rata RMSE untuk kedua perbandingan tersebut masing-masing menunjukkan tren menurun dan tren meningkat seiring dengan bertambahnya panjang waktu prediksi. Untuk parameter angin zonal dan angin meridional diperoleh bahwa CCAM memiliki pola yang sama dengan ARPEGE dan TLAPS. Sedangkan, untuk parameter suhu permukaan dan MSLP masih terdapat perbedaan RMSE yang cukup signifikan. Disimpulkan bahwa luaran model CCAM mempunyai performa yang cukup baik sebagai model prakiraan cuaca pada skala regional di Indonesia, meskipun masih perlu dilakukan proses validasi dan perbaikan pengaturan model lebih lanjut.

Kata Kunci:  : CCAM, ARPEGE, TLAPS, GrADS, Korelasi Spasial



ABSTRACT

This research accomplished the comparison of weather forecast output of CCAM upon ARPEGE and TLAPS to examine the performance of CCAM in Indonesia region. The Global Forecasting System (GFS) model output was used as the initial condition of CCAM. The comparison was applied to the forecast output on 1-28 February 2009 which represents the rainy season and 1-31 Mays 2009 which represents the onset of dry season in Indonesia. The comparison was conducted qualitatively by image visual comparison and quantitatively by spatial correlation calculation using Grid Analysis and Display System (GrADS) software version 18SL11. The result showed that the output from the three models have almost similar pattern, however output of ARPEGE and TLAPS were fairly better than CCAM. This result might emerge from the use of the ARPEGE and TLAPS data analysis as representation of observation data. The average spatial correlation showed a decreasing trend pattern while the average of RMSE showed a rising trend pattern along with the increasing of prediction time length. For zonal and meridional wind, it was found of having similar pattern as ARPEGE and TLAPS results. While for surface temperature and MSLP parameters, it was found of a significant difference in RMSE. As conclusion, CCAM has showed a fairly good performance upon generating weather forecast at regional scale in Indonesia, though there is still need to be improved further model tunning and validation.

KEYWORDS: CCAM;ARPEGE;TLAPS;GrADS;Spatial correlation



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RSGIS INDONESIA: Perbandingan Hasil Luaran Model Prakiraan Cuaca Conformal-Cubic [PAPER]
Perbandingan Hasil Luaran Model Prakiraan Cuaca Conformal-Cubic [PAPER]
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RSGIS INDONESIA
https://www.rsgis.info/2020/01/perbandingan-hasil-luaran-model-prakiraan-cuaca-conformal-cubic.html
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https://www.rsgis.info/2020/01/perbandingan-hasil-luaran-model-prakiraan-cuaca-conformal-cubic.html
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